Thursday, March 22, 2012

Michigan State VS. Louisville

The further a team advances in the NCAA Tournament, the more nervous a fan base becomes.  This year is no exception.  Michigan State advanced to the Sweet 16 for the 10th time under Tom Izzo.  Not without some sweaty palms from the Spartan Nation.  Saint Louis played them tough all game "uglying" the game with fouls and physical play.  MSU survived, and advanced.  Which is the name of the game this time of year.

They advance to play a very stingy Louisville Cardinal squad that won the Big East Tournament.  They are led by Point Guard Peyton Siva, whose defense and ability to get to the rim on offense can dictate how a game is played.  He can disrupt offenses by flustering opposing Point Guards and get opposing big guys in foul trouble and change the game plan entirely for an opponent.  He is the head of the snake if you will.  You cut off the head, and you beat Louisville.  MSU Point Guard Keith Appling is more than equipped to handle the type of pressure that will be thrust upon him.  It is the backups that worry me.  Travis Trice and Brandon Kearney have never seen any type of pressure like this.

How MSU wins...
Keith Appling is solid with the basketball and MSU limits its costly turnovers.  Turnovers are bound to happen but they must limit the ones that contribute directly to points at the other end.  Draymond Green does what he does and dominates the game because there isn't anyone on Louisville (or in the country) that can guard him.  Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne continue to be the 2-headed monster that they have become and own the paint.  Someone needs to step up and make jump shots as well (looking at you Thornton and Wood).

How UL wins...
Siva is as advertised and absolutely dominates the match-up between he and Appling.  They need to get easy points off turnovers (they were 13th in the Big East in points per possession) and they need to hold their own on the boards.  Kyle Kuric is relentless on offense and makes some long range shots.  Gorgui Dieng MUST stay out of foul trouble.

Prediction...
I think MSU wins 62-56 as the scrappy Cardinals keep it close.  However, Green and the battle tested Spartans outlast what becomes a defensive grind.

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